Before I start, I want to reiterate my enjoyment of the books, and the fact that I plan to read them again in the future. I have nothing against the books, but I am less convinced that they are classics worthy of such attention, than they are flash-in-the-pan filler for what was a gaping hole in the market.
Back to the movie. 17 million copies of the books have sold, mostly to girls and their moms, but also to a reasonable amount of boys. 17 million over the course of four books. This is a lot, a great deal more than I or you will ever sell, and Stephenie Meyer has done very well for herself. Again, tapped in to the market, etc. That said, it does not bode well for big box office. Most of people seeing that trailer, and most of the people who spend LOTS of money at the movies, are probably unfamiliar with the story. Not that the story is a big draw for those people to begin with, but we'll get to that later.
To start with, the choice of actors is a problem. I have nothing against Robert Pattinson or Kristen Stewart, and I do not doubt they are the right choices for their respective roles. The rest of the cast I find questionable, especially since there is almost zero recognizibility. As a further draw for a film that has a built in (and not terribly huge) cult following, known actors needed to be cast who would help draw in the crowds. The dude from Fastlane and Jane Doe from Grey's Anatomy do not exactly carry audiences with them everywhere they go (see: Elizabeth Reaser's recently cancelled CBS show). There is not a single marquee name to show, even in cameo, in the movie trailer.
It is the job of movie trailers to tempt viewers into the theater. They should give a taste of the story without giving away the whole plot. A trailer should intrigue. The Twilight trailers were really only "good" for people familiar with the plot of the book. They show Edward and Bella, as well as the bland introduction of James and Victoria as The Bad Guys. There is nothing indicating a deeper mythology, or even a presentation of a coherent plot.
Which brings us back to the story issue. Twilight is a love story. Plain and simple. There is nothing wrong with a love story, but it is awfully hard to make a mainstream movie (or bestselling series) on that basis alone. The "other" plot for Twilight is easy enough: rival vampires threaten Bella's life. There is also the ongoing conflict between the vampires and the werewolves (hello, Team Jacob!), both territorially and for Bella's affections, but that doesn't take off, really, until the second book. The "serious" threat, to everyone in the series, is also introduced in the second book, goes away almost entirely in the third, and is resolved so laughably in the fourth as to lose all credibility.
I don't like the ongoing rivalry between Twilight and Harry, but there is honestly no comparison.
I don't wish bad things for the Twilight film, and I will certainly go see it, just as I will read the books again. But I don't see that it will become the phenomenon it needs to become to spur further sequels. And I don't think we'll still be talking about it a decade from now.
